文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Ongoing Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Over the Western North Pacific Ocean

作者：Sun, Jia[1,2,3];Wang, Dingqi[1,2,3,4];Hu, Xiaomin[1,2,3];Ling, Zheng[5];Wang, Lu[6]

机构：[1]Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China;[2]Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China;[3]Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China;[4]Ocean Univ China, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China;[5]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Guangdong Key Lab Coastal Ocean Variabil & Disast, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[6]Univ Massachusetts Dartmouth, Sch Marine Sci & Technol, New Bedford, MA USA

年份：2019

卷号：46

期号：15

起止页码：9110

外文期刊名：GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000483812500055)、、EI(收录号：20193507366423)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85071186210)、WOS

基金：JMA TC best track data can be found at the http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jmaeng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html website. JTWC TC best track data can be found at the https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html? western-pacific website. CMA TC best track data can be found at the website (http://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/zjljsjj_zlhq.html). NOAA NCDC OISST can be found at the https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oisstwebsite. NCEP reanalysis data can be found at the website (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html). The authors thank two reviewers for their constructive comments that helped improve the manuscript. We also thank James P. Kossin for the guidance on the significance test and Suzana J. Camargo for valuable suggestions. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41706034 and 41376038), Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KLOCW1803 and KLOCW1804), Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2019A02), National Science and Technology Major Project (2016ZX05057015), National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (GASI-03-01-01-02, GASI-IPOVAI-01-05), and NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (U1606405).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Hurricanes - Tropics - Numerical methods - Orthogonal functions

外文摘要：The long-term change of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence (TCO) was investigated by combining TC track density function and empirical orthogonal function methods to consider TC duration through a new perspective. Pronounced ongoing poleward migration of TCO was found for 1982-2018. This change has primarily resulted from the modification of TC propagation from westward to northward since 1998. A cyclonic anomaly of the large-scale environmental steering flow centered on East Asia was found based on a comparison of 1982-1997 and 1998-2018 periods. The cyclonic anomaly encompasses the southerly anomaly south of 20 degrees N, which is the mainspring of the poleward migration of TCO, while the extra warming along the coast of China also favors this long-term change. This study made it possible to analyze discrete spatiotemporal TC observations continuously and provided helpful techniques for projecting TC changes using numerical methods. Plant Language Summary Tropical cyclones can greatly damage areas near landfall because of the strong winds and torrential rain while benefiting areas further from the cyclone center with plentiful freshwater. In this respect, the regional impact of tropical cyclones is associated with the activity of tropical cyclones, and studies on tropical cyclone occurrence and its changes are essential to assess the potential impact of cyclones on human society. This study focused on the change of tropical cyclone occurrence from 1982 to 2018 and found a remarkable northward shift since 1998, whereas cyclones previously traveled in a largely westward direction. The ongoing northward shift of tropical cyclone occurrence is primarily the result of a southerly anomaly south of 20 degrees N. This change increases the threat of tropical cyclones in East Asian countries.