文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：改革开放30年来中国农业生产总体评价及其预测模型的建立

英文题名：Overall Assessment and Its Forecast Model of Agricultural Development in the Past 30 Years of Reform and Opening up

作者：陈伟[1];卢秀容[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学经管学院,广东湛江524025

年份：2009

卷号：29

期号：5

起止页码：50

中文期刊名：广东海洋大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

收录：CSTPCD

语种：中文

中文关键词：因子分析法;农林牧渔业增加值;总体评价;预测模型

外文关键词：factor analysis method; GDP of primary industry; overall assessment; forecast model

中文摘要：采用近30年来的统计数据,对改革开放以来中国农业生产的总体趋势进行了分析描述,认为以农林牧渔业增加值(第一产业增加值)表示的农业生产水平总体上呈现上升趋势;通过对影响农业生产的因素运用因子分析法进行综合归纳,认为投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子是影响农业生产最主要的公共因子。最后运用投入因子、土地面积因子以及价格因子建立了中国农业生产总体情况的预测模型。

外文摘要：According to statistical data of the past 30 years, this paper analyses and describes the overall trend of agricultural development and thinks that the trend of GDP of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery（GDP of primary industry） has been went up year by year. By the factor analysis method, it obtained that input factor, land area factor and price factor are the main factors which have an important effect on the change of GDP of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The last, this paper establishes a forecast model of agricultural development by input factor, land area factor and price factor.