文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Poleward Shift in Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Northwest Pacific During Warm Periods: Past and Future

作者：Tao, Shichen[1,2];Liu, Kam-biu[3];Yu, Kefu[1,4];Shi, Qi[1,2];Yan, Hongqiang[1,2];Zhang, Huiling[5];Wang, Luo[6];Huang, Zhongzhou[7];Chen, Tegu[1]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean & Marginal Sea Geol, Guangzhou, Peoples R China;[2]Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Guangzho, Guangzhou, Peoples R China;[3]Louisiana State Univ, Coll Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA;[4]Guangxi Univ, Coral Reef Res Ctr China, Sch Marine Sci, Guangxi Lab Study Coral Reefs South China Sea, Nanning, Peoples R China;[5]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean Engn, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[6]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China;[7]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Mech & Power Engn, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China

年份：2021

卷号：36

期号：12

外文期刊名：PALEOCEANOGRAPHY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000735924600011)、、EI(收录号：20242616367949)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85121697650)、WOS

基金：The authors thank Prof. Jianxin Zhao for U-Th dating. This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grants No. 42030502, 41302281, 42090041, 41776128), Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0206), Guangdong Ocean University (230419102), South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (SQ201209) and Key Laboratory of Ocean and Marginal Sea Geology (MSGL15-09), CAS. The authors further acknowledge the constructive and helpful comments by four anonymous reviewers who provided positive comments to improve this paper.

语种：英文

外文关键词：tropical cyclones; poleward shift; Past millennium; coral delta O-18; coral blocks; Northwest Pacific

外文摘要：We used the top age of storm-relocated coral blocks (SRCBs) from Xisha Islands and Huangyan Island, South China Sea (SCS), in combination with existing paleotempestology records and instrumental climatic data, to reconstruct the spatio-temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the past millennium, and to project its future trends in the Northwestern Pacific region. We found a positive correlation between the frequencies of TCs, typhoons, and super-typhoons and the NINO3.4 on the interannual timescale during 1945-2019. TCs latitude has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature, with a northward migration rate of 80 +/- 11 km per decade during 1951-2019. Coral delta O-18 can well indicate the month of paleo-TCs occurrence. The frequency of SRCBs (and by inference, TCs) is relatively low during relatively warm periods (RWP) but high during relatively cold periods (RCP) in the SCS. The spatio-temporal pattern inferred from paleotempestology records further supports the notion of North-South migration in TC activity as revealed by the instrumental record in this study. TC activity mainly affected relatively low latitudes (e.g., Philippines, Vietnam, and Hainan, Guangdong, Taiwan) during the RCP (AD 1450-1900), but it migrated from low latitudes towards higher latitudes during the RWP (AD 1000-1450), affecting locations such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, southwestern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and even Northeast China. Fujian and northern Guangdong may be in a transition zone of paleo-TC activity between the North and the South in the past millennium. As global warming continues, the mean tracks and landfall locations of TCs will continue to migrate northward in this region.