文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：相似集合预报技术在粤西风场预报中的应用

英文题名：The Application of Analogue Ensemble Technique in Forecasting the Wind Field of Western Guangdong Province

作者：何泽锋[1];薛宇峰[1];张宇[1];龙景超[1];张树钦[1];郑福涛[1];魏晓钰[1];郑美盈[1];田霖[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,广东湛江524088

年份：2022

卷号：44

期号：1

起止页码：5

中文期刊名：广东气象

外文期刊名：Guangdong Meteorology

基金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506902);广东省大学生创新创业项目(CXXL2020047)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：气象预报;相似集合;再分析资料;地面风速;粤西

外文关键词：weather forecasting;analogue ensemble;reanalysis data;surface wind speed;correction method;western Guangdong

中文摘要：利用ERA5再分析资料与常规站点观测资料,采用相似集合法(AnEn)对粤西地面风的日平均风速与日最大风速释用进行订正。结果表明:日平均风速与日最大风速订正后的准确性得到明显提高,且在地形复杂的山区也有较好的订正效果。日平均风速的逐日均方根误差总体小于日最大风速,且更为稳定。对比相似成员集合性能,日平均风速各成员也比日最大风速表现更为稳定且集中,同时两者集合离散度和集合平均均方根误差较为接近,表明两者都有较高的可信度。

外文摘要：Using the reanalysis data of ERA5 and observations from conventional stations and the method of analogue ensemble,this work makes corrections to applicable diurnal mean and maximum wind speeds(to be referred to as the“D-mean wind”and“D-max.wind”respectively hereafter)for the surface level in the western part of Guangdong province.The results are shown as follows.With the corrections,the accuracy of both the D-mean wind and D-max.wind is much increased,with substantial improvement even for mountainous areas with complex terrain.Day-to-day root mean square errors of the D-mean wind are generally smaller and steadier than those of the D-max.wind.For the ensemble performance of analogue members,individual members for the D-mean wind are more stable and more concentrated than those of the D-max.wind.On the other hand,the ensemble discrete and the root mean square error of ensemble average are quite close between both winds,suggesting high reliability.