文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Seasonal prediction of East Asian monsoon precipitation: skill sensitivity to various climate variabilities

作者：Wu, Qiaoyan[1];Yan, Ying[2];Chen, Dake[1,3]

机构：[1]Second Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China;[2]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Coastal Ocean Variat & Dis, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[3]Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA

年份：2016

卷号：36

期号：1

起止页码：324

外文期刊名：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000367734800021)、、EI(收录号：20151700770926)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84958035661)、WOS

基金：Funding for this study is provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41276030, 91128204, 41321004), National Basic Research Program (2013CB430302), IPOVAR Project, and Ocean Public Welfare Scientific Research Project (201105018). DC also acknowledges the support of the Office of Naval Research under the research grant of MURI (N00014-12-1-0911). The authors greatly appreciate the support from NCEP, NOAA, NASA and Global Snow Lab (Rutgers University) for making the datasets available, and are indebted to two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

语种：英文

外文关键词：East Asian monsoon; seasonal prediction; precipitation

外文摘要：The sensitivity of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation prediction skill to the variabilities of the tropical Indian and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the heating and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau is evaluated in the framework of a linear Markov model. It is found that the tropical Indo-Pacific SST helps to improve the prediction of EAM precipitation over oceanic regions and some localized areas over land, while the Indian Ocean alone does not show significant impact on prediction. The remote effects of NAO improve the prediction in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe River valleys in boreal spring, fall and winter, and over oceanic areas in boreal summer and fall. The predictive skill of our model is not sensitive to the inclusion of the sensible heating and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, probably because their effects are implicitly present in the original EAM model.