文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于2118台风“圆规”模式扰动方案对台风区域集合预报的影响

英文题名：The Impact of the Model Perturbation Schemes of Typhoon‘Kompasu’(2021)on Regional Ensemble Prediction

作者：邵端舟[1,2];张宇[1,2];徐建军[1,3];陈思奇[1,4];李家菁[2];胡嘉政[2]

机构：[1]中国气象局-广东海洋大学南海海洋气象联合实验室,湛江524088;[2]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,湛江524088;[3]广东海洋大学深圳研究院,深圳518000;[4]南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院,南京210044

年份：2024

卷号：48

期号：4

起止页码：1511

中文期刊名：大气科学

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

收录：北大核心2023、CSTPCD、、Scopus、CSCD2023_2024、北大核心、CSCD

基金：国家重点研发计划项目2019YFC1510002;国家自然科学基金项目42130605、41705140;广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目2019B1515120018;深圳科技计划项目JCYJ20210324131810029。

语种：中文

中文关键词：区域集合预报;台风;多物理参数化组合方案(MP);随机参数扰动法(SPP);模式物理参数化倾;向随机扰动法(SPPT)

外文关键词：Regional ensemble forecasting;Typhoon;Multi-physics process parameterization method(MP);Stochastically perturbed parameter scheme(SPP);Stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)

中文摘要：为了探讨不同模式扰动方案对台风区域集合预报的影响,本文以2021年18号台风“圆规”为例,基于WRF模式,采用了多物理过程参数化方法(MP)、随机变化参数扰动方法(SPP)和物理倾向随机扰动(SPPT)三种不同的方法,设计了EXP1(MP)、EXP2(SPP+SPPT)和EXP3(MP+SPP+SPPT)三组敏感性试验进行了比较研究。结果表明:三组区域集合预报试验都能较好地模拟台风路径和台风增强的过程,其中EXP3试验效果最好,EXP3试验的路径偏差值为三组集合预报试验最小的,其平均值为52.8 km,而控制试验CTRL(无模式扰动)、EXP1和EXP2的平均值分别为61.8、54.4和65.7 km;三组集合预报试验的扰动能量值基本都大于控制试验CTRL,且EXP3的扰动能量发展最快,扰动能量值基本为最大的;三组集合预报试验的Brier评分相较于控制试验CTRL有所改善,且EXP3的Brier评分值为三组集合预报试验改善最大的,EXP1和EXP2相对于CTRL试验的改善率为45%和48.76%,而EXP3能达到70%,EXP2与EXP1的预报效果相当,EXP3相较于EXP1和EXP2预报效果有所改善,其相对于EXP1和EXP2的改善率达到57.5%和40%。

外文摘要：In this study,three model perturbation schemes,namely Stochastically Perturbed Parameter scheme(SPP),Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies(SPPT),and Multi-Physics process parameterization(MP),were employed to represent the model errors in the REPS(Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems).To investigate the influences of the various model perturbation schemes on typhoon forecasting,three sensitive experiments using three different combinations(EXP1:MP,EXP2:SPPT+SPP,and EXP3:MP+SPPT+SPP)of the model perturbation schemes were established based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)V4.2 model for Typhoon Kompasu(2021).The results reveal that for typhoon forecasting,ensemble forecasting experiments could simulate the process of typhoon intensification and the typhoon path,and EXP3 had the best simulation results.The path bias of EXP3 was the smallest of the three ensemble forecast experiments,with an average value of 52.8 km,while those of CTRL,EXP1,and EXP2 were 61.8,54.4,and 65.7 km,respectively.Additionally,the perturbation energies of the three sets of ensemble prediction experiments were greater than that of the CTRL.The perturbation energy of EXP3 developed the fastest and was the largest.Moreover,the Brier scores of the three sets of experiments enhanced the forecast results compared to the CTRL.Furthermore,those of EXP3 were the most improved of the three sets of experiments,with EXP1 and EXP2 demonstrating improvements of 45% and 48.76% relative to the CTRL,while EXP3 could reach 70%.The forecasts of EXP2 and EXP1 were comparable,and EXP3 had improved the forecasts compared with EXP1 and EXP2,with improvement rates of 57.5% and 40%,respectively.