文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Targeted All-Sky FY-3 microwave assimilation using localized ensemble transform sensitivity for warm-sector heavy rainfall prediction

作者：Chen, Siqi[1];Hu, Sheng[1];Li, Huiqi[1];Xiao, Hui[1];He, Jie[1];Zhang, Yu[2];Weng, Fuzhong[3]

机构：[1]China Meteorol Adm, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Acad Meteoro, Guangzhou Inst Trop & Marine Meteorol, Guangzhou 510641, Peoples R China;[2]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Zhanjiang 524088, Peoples R China;[3]CMA Earth Syst Modeling & Predict Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

年份：2027

卷号：344

外文期刊名：ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001876042200001)、、WOS

基金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants U2242203; the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2024YFC3013002) ; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 42475165, and 42375159; the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research

语种：英文

外文关键词：Warm-sector heavy rainfall; Ensemble transform sensitivity; All-sky microwave assimilation; Fengyun-3 satellite; Boundary-layer jet; CMA-MESO

外文摘要：The prediction of warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) over South China is constrained by the sensitivity of convection-resolving forecasts to initial condition errors under weak synoptic forcing. Conventional ensemble transform sensitivity (ETS) methods identify regions where supplementary observations reduce forecast uncertainty, but spurious long-range correlations from limited ensemble size obscure mesoscale sensitivity signals at kilometer-scale. This study develops a localized ETS combining a hybrid static-ensemble analysis error covariance with Gaspari-Cohn spatial localization, integrated with all-sky assimilation in China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model (CMA-MESO). Fengyun-3E and Fengyun-3F microwave sounding data are jointly assimilated within the identified sensitive regions using a scene-dependent observation error model. The method is evaluated through an extreme WSHR event over the Pearl River Delta on 3-4 May 2024. The localized ETS identifies sensitive regions that transition from the 500 hPa shortwave trough at extended lead times to the boundary-layer jet (BLJ) source region over the northern South China Sea near rainfall onset. Targeted assimilation of 2295 all-sky microwave radiances within these regions strengthens the low-level jet and produces a vertically coordinated structure with 975-hPa convergence on the windward side of the coastal terrain, 700-hPa divergence aloft, and low-level tongue of high-theta se over the precipitation center. The 24-h accumulated precipitation reaches approximately 200 mm, compared with 50 mm from the conventional sensitivity approach and 10 mm without targeted assimilation. At the 120 mm threshold, the Fractions Skill Score reaches 0.19, 0.21, and 0.33 at the 9, 33, and 93 km scales, while all reference experiments remain near zero.