文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Spatiotemporal variations of near-surface CO2 concentrations in China and their multiple drivers: Modeling pathways towards the "dual carbon" goals

作者：Yang, Tianshun[1,2];Wu, Liqing[1];Xu, Jianjun[1];Pang, Jiongming[3];Wang, Xuemei[2];Shao, Min[2];Chen, Weihua[2];Mao, Jingying[4];Chang, Shujie[1];Long, Jingchao[1]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Western Guangdong Key Lab Marine Meteorol Disaster, Key Lab Climate Resources & Environm Continental S, Coll Ocean & Meteorol,Dept Educ Guangdong Prov, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[2]Jinan Univ, Coll Environm & Climate, Guangdong Hongkong Macau Joint Lab Collaborat Inno, Guangzhou, Peoples R China;[3]Shenzhen Inst Meteorol Innovat, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area Weather, Shenzhen, Peoples R China;[4]Guangxi Res Acad Environm Sci, Nanning, Peoples R China

年份：2026

卷号：575

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001851058200001)、、EI(收录号：20263321290119)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105047052682)、WOS

基金：This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72293604 and 42405103), Western Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Meteorological Disaster Theory and Application (2025KSYS009), the Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42121004), the Guangong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515110527), the Guangdong Province: Special Support Plan for High-Level Talents (2023JC07L057), the Guangdong Provincial General Colleges and Universities Innovation Team Project (Natural Science) (2024KCXTD004), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42105114, 42375109, 42205121 and 42475082) and the program for scientific research start-up funds of Guangdong Ocean University (060302032301).

语种：英文

外文关键词：CO 2 concentration; WRF-Chem model; Carbon emissions; Carbon neutrality; Multi-driver decoupling

外文摘要：The transition from static emission inventories to dynamic atmospheric concentration assessments is crucial for evaluating and optimizing pathways toward China's "dual carbon" goals. This study develops a modeling framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), driven by a comprehensively coupled multi-source carbon emission inventory, to quantitatively decouple the impacts of anthropogenic, meteorological, and natural drivers on near-surface carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations across China. Based on the historical baseline simulations, our results reveal a pronounced "southeastern high and northwestern low" spatial pattern of CO2 concentrations, with major urban agglomerations emerging as primary hotspots. Scenario projections for 2030 reveal distinct regional divergences: CO2 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) continue to rise, primarily driven by expanding emissions from the "Industrial Boilers" (e.g., an increase of 1.06 & times; 108 Mg in the YRD) and "Mobile Sources" sectors, whereas regions like Shanxi exhibit a downward trend due to aggressive early structural transitions in the "Power" sector (-20.4%). By 2060, a universal deep decarbonization driven predominantly by extensive emission reductions in the "Power" and "Industrial Boilers" sectors translates to an 85.31% overall emission reduction across major urban agglomerations, yielding a decrease in CO2 concentrations by 6.51 ppmv (1.55%). Furthermore, meteorological drivers exert dual controls: boundary layer and wind speed variations drive local accumulation by affecting atmospheric dispersion, whereas temperatures indirectly modulate concentrations via biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. Notably, terrestrial biogenic fluxes alter localized concentrations by up to 8.93%, highlighting the importance of natural sink preservation. These findings demonstrate the efficacy of regional numerical modeling for multi-factor decoupling, providing a reliable scientific foundation for implementing sector-specific dynamic emission controls and cleaner production policies.