文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的贸易影响因素及潜力测度

英文题名：Measurement of Trade Factors and Trade Potentials between China and Countries along the Belt and Road

作者：叶刘刚[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学经济学院,广东湛江524088

年份：2021

期号：11

起止页码：36

中文期刊名：对外经贸

外文期刊名：FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划学科共建项目“'一带一路'沿线国家的贸易潜力与贸易畅通研究”(项目编号:GD16XYJ29);广东教育厅广东普通高校特色创新类项目(项目编号:2017WTSCX050)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：贸易潜力;引力模型;“一带一路”;两两国家效应;国际贸易

外文关键词：Trade Potential;Gravity Model;the Belt and Road;Country-pair effects;International Trade

中文摘要：运用两两国家效应引力模型,考察了1992—2019年间中国与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的贸易情况,对影响贸易量的主要因素进行了实证分析。研究发现距离、GDP、边界、民族语言和地区贸易安排都对贸易量有显著的影响。在此基础上,对我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易潜力进行了测算,发现中国对沿线国家不同地区的贸易潜力存在差异。中国对西亚、中亚、中东欧和独联体国家的进出口贸易相对充分,对多数东盟国家和全部的南亚国家仍然富有进出口潜力。

外文摘要：This paper investigate bilateral trade flows from 1992 to 2009 by the country-pair effects gravity model. By making an empirical analysis on the main factors affecting trade, this paper finds that distance, GDP, border, national language, colonial relations and regional trade arrangements all have a significant impact on trade volume. Then, following the empirical analysis on the main factors, we measures the Chinese export and import potential to each country of the Belt and Road. China’s import and export trade to West Asia, Central Asia, central and Eastern Europe and CIS countries has been saturated. However, it still has import and export potential for most ASEAN countries and all South Asian countries. The results indicate that there are differences in China’s trade potential with different regions of countries along the Belt and Road. Finally, this paper gives specific suggestions on how to promote trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road.