文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：低碳经济下城市交通系统动力学模型及政策仿真

英文题名：A System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Policy for Urban Traffic System under Low Carbon Economy

作者：高妍南[1,2];郝晴[3]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学电子与信息工程学院,广东湛江524088;[2]哈尔滨商业大学工商管理博士后流动站,黑龙江哈尔滨150028;[3]哈尔滨商业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

年份：2021

卷号：38

期号：3

起止页码：96

中文期刊名：公路交通科技

外文期刊名：Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

收录：CSCD2021_2022、Scopus、北大核心、CSCD、北大核心2020

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(71671054,61871465);广东海洋大学博士科研启动项目(R20005);哈尔滨商业大学博士后科研启动项目(2017BSH015)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：城市交通;低碳交通;系统动力学;城市交通系统;政策

外文关键词：urban traffic;low carbon transport;system dynamics;urban transportation system;policy

中文摘要：随着我国经济发展模式的调整,人们愈发关注由交通运输引发的一系列环境污染问题。新时期现代化交通运输系统逐渐向资源节约、绿色循环方向发展,在大力发展低碳经济的背景下,如何发展低废气污染的交通运输成为主要的研究方向。在深入研究城市交通拥堵和环境污染相互作用演化过程的基础上,从政府决策、人口、车辆、经济等因素出发,分析了城市人口数量与GDP、机动车保有量、交通基础设施建设、公共交通保有量、管理水平和交通政策对城市低碳交通发展的影响,利用系统动力学方法构建了受政策影响的城市低碳交通系统模型。以哈尔滨市为例,结合城市发展具体情况,利用Vensim PLE软件仿真分析了不同交通管理政策对交通碳排放和城市拥堵现象的抑制效果。以降低城市交通碳排量和保障城市交通效率最优为目标,给出了优化建议,探索了哈尔滨市在低碳经济背景下发展的城市交通发展方式。结果表明:限行限号政策、新能源车补贴政策可以有效缓解交通拥堵和减少尾气排放;交通供给侧改革政策可以解决交通拥堵问题;提升交通管理水平对尾气排放和道路拥挤具有缓解作用;采取灵活有效的交通管理政策,提高交通管理水平,将有助于减小交通拥堵现象,降低污染气体的排放,实现交通、人口、经济和环境的平衡。

外文摘要：With the adjustment of Chinese economic development mode,people are paying more and more attention to a series of environmental pollution problems caused by transport.The modern transport system in the new era is gradually developing towards resource saving and green circulation.Under the background of vigorously developing low-carbon economy,how to develop low-carbon transport has become the main research direction.Based on the in-depth study of the evolution process of the interaction between urban traffic congestion and environmental pollution,the influences of urban population and GDP,vehicle ownership,traffic infrastructure construction,public transport ownership,management level and traffic policy on the development of urban low-carbon transport are analyzed from the aspects of government decisionmaking,population,vehicles and economy.The model of urban low-carbon transport system affected by policy is constructed by using the method of system dynamics.Taking Harbin for example,combining with the specific situation of urban development,the effects of different traffic management policies in restraining traffic carbon emissions and urban congestion are analyzed by using Vensim PLE software.To reduce the carbon emissions of urban traffic and ensure the optimal urban traffic efficiency,the optimization suggestions are proposed,and the urban transport development mode for Harbin under the background of low-carbon economy is explored.The result shows that(1)the policy of traffic restriction and new energy vehicle subsidy can effectively alleviate traffic congestion and reduce exhaust emissions;(2)the reform policy of traffic supply side can solve the problem of traffic congestion;(3)improving the level of traffic management can alleviate exhaust emissions and road congestion;(4)adopting flexible and effective traffic management policies and improving the level of traffic management will help to reduce traffic congestion,reduce emissions of polluting gases,and realize the balance among traffic,population,economy and environment.