文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13

作者：Peng, Shiqiu[1];Li, Yineng[1];Gu, Xiangqian[2];Chen, Shumin[1];Wang, Dongxiao[1];Wang, Hui[3];Zhang, Shuwen[4];Lv, Weihua[5];Wang, Chunzai[6];Liu, Bei[1,4];Liu, Duanling[1,7];Lai, Zhijuan[1,8];Lai, Wenfeng[1];Wang, Shengan[1];Feng, Yerong[7];Zhang, Junfeng[8]

机构：[1]Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China;[3]Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;[4]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[5]Maoming Meteorol Bur, Maoming, Peoples R China;[6]NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA;[7]Meteorol Ctr Guangdong Prov, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[8]State Ocean Adm, South China Sea Marine Predict Ctr, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

年份：2015

卷号：30

期号：2

起止页码：471

外文期刊名：WEATHER AND FORECASTING

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000353103600014)、、EI(收录号：20163202691633)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84980413692)、WOS

基金：This work was jointly supported by the MOST of China (Grants 2011CB403505 and 2014CB953904); the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (GYHY201406008); the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDA01020304); the Chinese Academy of Sciences through Project KZCX2-EW-208; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41376021); the Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Guangdong Marine's disaster emergency response technology research center (2012A032100004).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Tropical cyclones; Numerical weather prediction; forecasting; Operational forecasting; Short-range prediction; Regional models

外文摘要：A real-time regional forecasting system for the South China Sea (SCS), called the Experimental Platform of Marine Environment Forecasting (EPMEF), is introduced in this paper. EPMEF consists of a regional atmosphere model, a regional ocean model, and a wave model, and performs a real-time run four times a day. Output from the Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as the initial and boundary conditions of two nested domains of the atmosphere model, which can exert a constraint on the development of small- and mesoscale atmospheric perturbations through dynamical downscaling. The forecasted winds at 10-m height from the atmosphere model are used to drive the ocean and wave models. As an initial evaluation, a census on the track predictions of 44 tropical cyclones (TCs) during 2011-13 indicates that the performance of EPMEF is very encouraging and comparable to those of other official agencies worldwide. In particular, EPMEF successfully predicted several abnormal typhoon tracks including the sharp recurving of Megi (2010) and the looping of Roke (2011). Further analysis reveals that the dynamically downscaled GFS forecasts from the most updated forecast cycle and the optimal combination of different microphysics and PBL schemes primarily contribute to the good performance of EPMEF in TC track forecasting. EPMEF, established primarily for research purposes with the potential to be implemented into operations, provides valuable information not only to the operational forecasters of local marine/meteorological agencies or international TC forecast centers, but also to other stakeholders such as the fishing industry and insurance companies.