文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part II: Probabilistic Projection

作者：Li, Wei[1];Jiang, Zhihong[2];Xu, Jianjun[3];Li, Laurent[4]

机构：[1]Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;[2]Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, 219 Ningliu Rd, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;[3]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[4]UPMC Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, CNRS, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France

年份：2016

卷号：29

期号：24

起止页码：8989

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000388677100019)、、EI(收录号：20165003107583)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85000956255)、WOS

基金：Comments from Prof. Minghua Zhang and an anonymous reviewer are much appreciated. We acknowledge the modeling groups listed in Table 1 of this paper for making their simulations available for analysis, the PCMDI for collecting and archiving the CMIP5 model output, and the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and lead development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This work is supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (41230528), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2016YFA0600402), the Research and Innovation Project for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province (Grant KYLX_0843), and a project funded by the Priority Academic Program Development (PAPD) of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions. L. Li was partly supported by the French ANR Project China-Trend-Stream.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Precipitation (meteorology) - Floods - Atmospheric thermodynamics - Signal to noise ratio

外文摘要：The present article is the second part of a study on the extreme precipitation indices over China in CMIP5 models that perform a probabilistic projection of future precipitation indices with reference to the period 1986-2005. This is realized with a rank-based weighting method. The ranking of the 25 models is done according to their performance in simulating rainfall indices in present-day climate. Such weights are used to form a weighted ensemble for future climate projection. Results show that, compared to the un-weighted raw ensemble, the projection with the weighted scheme is more credible, as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of indices is larger from the weighted ensemble. From the beginning of the mid-twenty-first century, changes of wet indices with probability >0.5 increase significantly, especially over western China and the Yellow-Huai River basin, where the changes of all wet indices are in excess of 10%, the increase of total precipitation (PRCPTOT) can reach up to 20% over western China at the end of twenty-first century, and the SNR of PRCPTOT and precipitation intensity (SDII) is the highest at those two regions. This indicates that the precipitation in those regions has a high reliability to become more extreme. The maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) decreases throughout the north of 308N, which shows that drought conditions in northern China would be reduced, and they are more likely to increase in southern China. However, the SNR for projection of CDD is less than 1.0 almost everywhere. Such a situation seems related to a strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon and the associated northward shift of the monsoon front.