文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于东亚区域再分析系统模拟2015年西北太平洋热带气旋

英文题名：East Asian Regional Reanalysis System Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Simulation in the Northwest Pacific

作者：潘裕山[1,2,3];徐建军[1,2,3];张宇[1,2,3];袁帅[1,2,3];朱文清[1,2,3]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院,广东湛江524088;[2]广东海洋大学南海海洋气象研究院,广东湛江524088;[3]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(湛江),广东湛江524025

年份：2020

卷号：40

期号：5

起止页码：53

中文期刊名：广东海洋大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

收录：CSTPCD

基金：中国气象科学研究院国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501802);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(湛江)资助项目(ZJW-2019-08);广东海洋大学“创新强校”资助项目(230419053);广东海洋大学“冲一流”学科建设科研项目(平台)(231419022);海洋与气候变化人才培养和创新团队(002026002002)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：东亚区域再分析;数值模式;资料同化;热带气旋

外文关键词：East Asian Reanalysis;numerical weather forecast;data assimilation;tropical cyclone

中文摘要：【目的】基于东亚区域再分析系统(EARS)模拟西北太平洋热带气旋的路径和强度,评估模拟效果。【方法】用WRF-ARW(Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model)中尺度模式和GSI(Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)同化系统发展东亚区域再分析系统。以EARS的初步结果为基础,以热带气旋路径和强度的模拟结果为对象,与美国环境预报中心再分析资料(NCEP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料(ERA-Interim)、欧洲中期天气预报中心新一代再分析资料(ERA5)、日本气象厅(JMA)55年再分析资料(JRA55)比较,同时与中国气象局(CMA)最佳路径数据集观测值进行对比分析,评估西北太平洋热带气旋模拟的路径和强度。【结果与结论】1)EARS、NCEP、ERA-Interim、ERA5、JRA55再分析资料分别与CMA最佳路径数据集的22个西北太平洋热带气旋中心的平均距离偏差为20~140 km,表明EARS和其他4套再分析资料可准确产生热带气旋路径。ERA5产生的热带气旋路径最佳,JRA55、EARS和ERA-Interim次之,NCEP最差。当EARS使用ERA5作为初始场时,对热带气旋"Mujigae"路径的模拟基本与ERA5基本一致,模拟的路径更准确。EARS模拟的热带气旋运动方向误差在发展和消亡阶段较大;当使用ERA5作为初始场时,模拟的热带气旋"Mujigae"运动方向误差得到改善。2)EARS具有更高的时空分辨率和合理的资料同化方案,可同化更精确的区域观测资料,对热带气旋近中心最大风速模拟能力较佳,略优于ERA5,明显比JRA55、ERA-Interim、NCEP准确,可更好地反映热带气旋强度和获得热带气旋精细化结构。

外文摘要：【Objective】Track and intensity evaluation of the tropical cyclone track and intensity in the Northwest Pacific based on the East Asian regional reanalysis system.【Methods】East Asian regional reanalysis system(EARS)was developed using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF-ARW)mesoscale model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI)assimilation system.Based on the preliminary results of EARS,this paper takes the simulation results of tropical cyclone track and intensity as the research object,compares them with several global reanalysis around the world and the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)best track database.【Results and Conclusions】(1)The average distance error of the 22 tropical cyclone centers between the EARS,NCEP,ERA-Interim,ERA5,JRA55 and the CMA best track database respectively is 20–140 km,indicating that the EARS and the other four reanalysis datasets can accurately reproduce the tropical cyclone track.The tropical cyclone tracks reproduced by ERA5 is the best,followed by JRA55,EARS and ERA-Interim The worst is NCEP.When EARS used ERA5 as initial field,the simulation of the tropical cyclone“Mujigae”track was basically consistent with ERA5,and the simulated track is more accurate.The direction error of tropical cyclone motion simulated by EARS is large in the development and extinction phases.EARS used ERA5 as the initial field can improve the direction error of the tropical cyclone“Mujigae”motion.(2)EARS is regional reanalysis system with higher spatial and temporal resolution and a reasonable data assimilation scheme.It can assimilate more accurate regional observations.It has a better ability to simulate the maximum wind speed near the center of tropical cyclone,slightly better than ERA5,and significantly more accurate than JRA55,ERA-Interim,NCEP.It can better reflect the intensity of tropical cyclones and obtain the refined structure of tropical cyclones.