文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Research on the Drift Prediction of Marine Floating Debris: A Case Study of the South China Sea Maritime Drift Experiment

作者：Mu, Lin[1];Tu, Haiwen[2];Geng, Xiongfei[3];Qiao, Fangli[4];Chen, Zhihui[5];Jia, Sen[6];Zhu, Ruifei[7];Zhang, Tianyu[8];Chen, Zhi[9]

机构：[1]Shenzhen Univ, Coll Life Sci & Oceanog, Shenzhen 518060, Peoples R China;[2]China Univ Geosci, Coll Marine Sci & Technol, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China;[3]China Waterborne Transport Res Inst, Beijing 100088, Peoples R China;[4]Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China;[5]China Precise Ocean Detect Technol Co Ltd, Yichang 443005, Peoples R China;[6]Shenzhen Univ, Coll Comp Sci & Software Engn, Shenzhen 518060, Peoples R China;[7]Chang Guang Satellite Tecnol Co Ltd, Changchun 130102, Peoples R China;[8]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang 524088, Peoples R China;[9]Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

年份：2024

卷号：12

期号：2

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001168318700001)、、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85185955740)、WOS

基金：No Statement Available

语种：英文

外文关键词：maritime search and rescue; drift experiment; aircraft wreckage; drift prediction model

外文摘要：Annually, hundreds of individuals tragically lose their lives at sea due to shipwrecks or aircraft accidents. For search and rescue personnel, the task of locating the debris of a downed aircraft in the vastness of the ocean presents a formidable challenge. A primary task these teams face is determining the search area, which is a critical step in the rescue operation. The movement of aircraft wreckage on the ocean surface is extremely complex, influenced by the combined effects of surface winds, waves, and currents. Establishing an appropriate drift motion prediction model is instrumental in accurately determining the search area for the wreckage. This article initially conducts maritime drift observation experiments on wreckage, and based on the results of these experiments, analyzes the drift characteristics and patterns of the debris. Subsequently, employing a wealth of observational experimental data, three types of drift prediction models for the wreckage are established using the least squares method. These models include the AP98 model, the dynamics model, and an improved model. In conclusion, the effectiveness and accuracy of the three models is evaluated and analyzed using Monte Carlo techniques. The results indicate that the probability of positive crosswind leeway (CWL) is 47.4%, while the probability of negative crosswind leeway (CWL) is 52.6%. The jibing frequency is 7.7% per hour, and the maximum leeway divergence angle observed is 40.4 degrees. Among the three drift prediction models, the refined AP98 drift model demonstrates the highest forecasting precision. The findings of this study offer a more accurate drift prediction model for the search of an aircraft lost at sea. These results hold significant guiding importance for maritime search and rescue operations in the South China Sea.