文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：秋季登陆广东热带气旋特征变化及机制分析

英文题名：Variation and mechanisms of autumn tropical cyclones landed in Guangdong

作者：韩鼎妍[1,2];李敏[1,2,3];胡睿[1];谢玲玲[1,2,3]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院近海海洋变化与灾害预警实验室,广东湛江524088;[2]陆架及深远海气候、资源与环境广东省高等学校重点实验室,广东湛江524088;[3]自然资源部空间海洋遥感应用重点实验室,广东湛江524088

年份：2024

卷号：43

期号：1

起止页码：64

中文期刊名：热带海洋学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Tropical Oceanography

收录：北大核心2023、CSTPCD、、CSCD2023_2024、北大核心、CSCD

基金：国家自然科学基金(42276019);广东省粤西热带海洋生态环境野外观测研究站项目。

语种：中文

中文关键词：秋季登陆热带气旋;变化趋势;年际变化;ENSO

外文关键词：landed tropical cyclone in autumn;long-term variation;interannual variability;ENSO

中文摘要：基于1949—2021年中国气象局热带气旋最佳路径数据集和登陆热带气旋数据集,对秋季登陆广东热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TCs)的时空特征和可能机制进行分析,并与夏季进行对比。结果表明:近73年共76个TCs秋季登陆广东,占登陆总数的28.5%,以强台风和超强台风占主,且平均最大强度强于夏季。相比夏季,秋TCs更大比例(72.4%)生成于西北太平洋,生成经纬度偏南、偏东;秋TCs的年均破坏潜力指标(power dissipation index,PDI)可达0.4×10^(7)m^(3)·s^(-2),与夏季相当;秋TCs登陆后比夏季更快消亡,移速更慢,PDI较小。秋TCs登陆数量长期变化呈下降趋势且下降速率与夏季相当,登陆强度上升且上升速率为夏季1.8倍,移速减缓速率为夏季2.5倍,PDI下降速率明显弱于夏季。不同于夏季登陆TCs在拉尼娜年增多,秋TCs更易在厄尔尼诺年登陆广东;登陆广东秋TCs数与上一年冬春季厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)指数相关系数达到0.3,并对后一年ENSO具有指示作用。秋TCs登陆频数与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)指数显著相关,1977—1996和1997—2016暖冷两个位相期,相关系数分别为?0.51和0.68。对比有无秋TCs的环境场,发现南海北部海温暖异常时,其西北侧激发的气旋性引导气流利于TCs登陆广东。

外文摘要：Using the track data of landed tropical cyclones(TCs)during 1949—2021 from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,this study analyzes the variation and mechanism of TCs landed in autumn in Guangdong area,and compares with the results in summer.The results show that a total of 76 TCs landed in Guangdong in autumn during the past 73 years,accounting for 28.5%of the landed TCs in whole year.The landed TCs in autumn(ALTCs)are mostly in categories of strong typhoon and super typhoon,and the mean peak intensities are stronger than those in summer.72.4%of the ALTCs generated in the Western North Pacific,a higher portion than summer landed TCs and the average latitude and longitude of TCs generation move southward and eastward.The yearly power dissipation index(PDI)of autumn TCs reaches 0.4×10^(7)m^(3)·s^(-2),comparable to that of summer TCs;during landfall to dissipation,the average duration time of autumn TCs is less,the translation speed is slower and PDI is less than those of summer TCs.In long-term variations,the declining trend and decrease rate of the number of ALTCs is similar to that in summer,while the landing intensity of ALTCs increases with a rate 1.8 times higher than that in summer.The translation speed of ALTCs slows down but with a rate 2.5 times lower than summer TCs,the PDI of ALTCs shows a weaker decreasing trend than summer TCs.Unlike more TCs landed in summer in La Ni?a year,more ALTCs appeared in El Ni?o years.The number of ALTCs is related to the ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation)index in previous winter and spring with correlation coefficient of about 0.3.It can be used as an indicator for next-year ENSO prediction.In decadal variability,the correlation coefficients between the number of ALTCs and the PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)index,were?0.51 and 0.68 in the warm phase(1977—1996)and cold phase(1997—2016),respectively.The composite analysis shows that ALTCs can occur with a warm sea surface temperature anomaly in the northern South China Sea,which induced cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the South China and favors TCs landed in Guangdong.