文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国沿海地区人海关系地域系统韧性时空演变及其影响因素

英文题名：Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of resilience in the human-sea interaction regional system in China's coastal areas

作者：宾津佑[1,2];唐小兵[3,4]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学管理学院,广东湛江524088;[2]广东海洋大学广东沿海经济带发展研究院,广东湛江524088;[3]湖南省社会科学院政策研究与智库建设部,湖南长沙410003;[4]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411201

年份：2026

卷号：45

期号：2

起止页码：235

中文期刊名：海洋通报

外文期刊名：Marine Science Bulletin

收录：北大核心2023、、北大核心

基金：广东省哲学社会科学规划学科共建项目(GD24XYJ14);广东海洋大学人文社会科学研究项目(C22836);广东海洋大学教育教学改革项目(PX-972025119)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：人海关系地域系统;韧性;空间马尔科夫链;随机森林模型;沿海地区

外文关键词：human-sea interaction regional system;resilience;spatial Markov chains;random forest model;coastal areas

中文摘要：沿海地区作为人海交互作用的核心地带,探究其系统韧性时空演变规律及驱动机制对推动海洋可持续发展和陆海统筹协同治理具有重要意义。基于“抵抗-适应-转换”理论框架,构建人海关系地域系统韧性评价指标体系,综合运用CRITIC-熵权法、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,系统分析沿海地区人海关系地域系统韧性水平的时空演变特征,并借助随机森林模型识别影响沿海地区人海关系地域系统韧性水平的关键驱动因素及其作用差异。结果表明:(1)时序演变趋势上,沿海地区人海关系地域系统韧性呈上升趋势,抵御风险能力不断增强,但整体韧性以中低水平为主,区域差异明显;(2)空间格局演变上,沿海地区人海关系地域系统呈现出显著的空间依赖性与“俱乐部趋同”特征,表现为多层次、非均衡的梯度分异格局,且邻域背景对区域韧性转移路径具有重要影响;(3)驱动机制上,人海关系地域系统韧性水平受自然、经济、社会与制度等多维因素共同驱动,其作用机制可归纳为渐进增强型、阈值约束型、波动平衡型三类,系统韧性与各因素间存在复杂的非线性交互效应与阈值约束机制。

外文摘要：As the core zone of human-sea interaction,elucidating the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of system resilience in coastal areas is of crucial importance for promoting sustainable marine development and coordinated land-sea governance.Based on the"resistance-adaptation-transformation"theoretical framework,an evaluation index system for regional resilience in human-sea interaction systems is constructed.The spatio-temporal evolution of resilience levels in coastal regions is systematically analyzed by integrating methods such as the CRITIC-entropy weighting method,kernel density estimation,and spatial Markov chains.Key driving factors and their differential effects on resilience levels are further identified using random forest model.The results show that:(1)In terms of temporal evolution,the resilience of the coastal human-sea system exhibits an upward trend,with risk resistance capacity continuously strengthening;however,overall resilience remains at a medium-low level with significant regional differences;(2)Regarding spatial pattern evolution,the human-sea system shows significant spatial dependence and club convergence,manifesting as a multi-tiered and uneven gradient differentiation pattern.The neighborhood context exerts a notable influence on the transition path of regional resilience.(3)The analysis of driving mechanisms reveals that resilience in the human-sea system is jointly driven by multiple factors across natural,economic,social,and institutional dimensions.The underlying mechanisms are categorized into three types:progressive enhancement,threshold constraint,and fluctuation equilibrium.Complex nonlinear interaction effects and threshold constraint mechanisms exist between system resilience and its driving factors.