文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Updated Scheme for Data Assimilation of Adaptive Observation?And Application for Typhoon Forecasts Over the Western North Pacific

作者：Chen, Siqi[1,2,4]; Zhang, Yu[2,3,4]; Xu, Jianjun[1,2,4]; Ye, Guiling[2,3,4]; Lu, Zebin[2,3,4]

机构：[1] School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; [2] CMA-GDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology, South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China; [3] College of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China; [4] Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University, Shenzhen, China

年份：2022

外文期刊名：SSRN

收录：EI(收录号：20220016184)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Forecasting - Hurricanes - Storms

外文摘要：In this study, we firstly updated a method of the Ensemble Transform Sensitivity (ETS) to identify the adaptive observation sensitive regions for typhoon forecasts with the selected five cases during 2015-2020 year over the Western North Pacific WNPusing 50 ensemble forecasts from the European Center provided by THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble portal (TIGGE). Secondly, the intercomparasion experiements were made to explore the impacts of adaptive observational data assimilation with conventional observations and the satellite Himawari-8 over the sensitive (SEN), non-sensitive (NOSEN) ?and all studied region (ALL) on typhoon forecasts using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) assimilation system of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of United States. The results show that the assimilation of less observational data in the SEN areas can achieve the forecast effect of assimilating in ALL region, the intensity error in can be reduced by about 15%, and the track error is even better in some cases. Finally, the detailed analysis from circulation field and flux perspectives for the case of Typhoon Lekima occurred in August 2019 over the WNP confirmed the conclusion. At the initial time of 1800 UTC 08 August when the data assimilation was made over the SEN, NOSEN and ALL ?areas, respectively. The start circulation field with the vorticity increasing on the southwest of the typhoon and decreasing on the southeast is benenfit to typhoon moving westward. By the time at the 18-hour forecasting, in contrast to the experiments in NOSEN and ALL, the circulation in the SEN area assimilation experiment showed a negative vorticity increase on the southwest side of the typhoon and positive potential temperature and water vapor increments on its north side, which provided the favorable weather conditions for the typhoon turning direction to move northward. Obviously, the assimilating over the sensitive area in typhoon target studies has substantially improved assimilation efficiency and typhoon forecasting. ? 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.