文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：A 7-Year Lag Precipitation Teleconnection in South Australia and Its Possible Mechanism

作者：Fan, Lingli[1,2];Guan, Huade[2];Cai, Wenju[3,4,5];Rofe, C. P.[2];Xu, Jianjun[1]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, South China Sea Inst Marine Meteorol, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China;[2]Flinders Univ S Australia, Coll Sci & Engn, Natl Ctr Groundwater Res & Training, Bedford Pk, SA, Australia;[3]Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China;[4]Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China;[5]CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, SA, Australia

年份：2020

卷号：8

外文期刊名：FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000590071400001)、、EI(收录号：20212810639116)、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85096003794)、WOS

基金：This study was partly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China NO 2018YFC1506002 and NO 2018YFA0605604. Early development of the research idea was benefited from the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training (Australia) SR08000001. WC was supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research center between QNLM and CSIRO. Craig T. Simmons, Jochen Kaempf, and Matthias Tomczak (deceased) from Flinders University joined discussion at the early stage of this work. Two reviewers and Editor Stahl's constructive comments improved this manuscript. All data used in this paper are available in the relevant organizations described in the data section.

语种：英文

外文关键词：precipitation prediction; southern annular mode; sea temperature; supergyre; drought; Goyder’ s line

外文摘要：Precipitation teleconnections with large-scale ocean-atmosphere oscillation systems provide useful information for water management. Here, we present a 7-year lag response in South Australia (SA) precipitation to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in a positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase. This teleconnection between a positive SAM phase and increased SA precipitation, and vice versa, statistically consists of three sequential steps: a 27-season lag positive correlation between sea subsurface potential temperature (SSPT) to the south of SA and SAM, a zero-season lag positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and SSPT, and a 2-season positive lag correlation between SA precipitation and sea surface temperature. Physically, this teleconnection seems to be associated with a supergyre circulation of the southern hemisphere oceans, which transfers SAM signal via subsurface potential sea temperature in the central south Pacific to the south of SA in 27 seasons during the positive IPO phase. Practically, this teleconnection provides a 7-year-lead drought precursor for rain-fed agriculture planning in SA. However, the teleconnection disappears in negative IPO phases. The oceanic pathway via the supergyre suggested in this study provides a basis to predict when this 7-year teleconnection may resume in the future based on observation and/or modeling.