文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于分位数回归的粮食产量影响因素分析——以湖北省为例

英文题名：Factor Analysis on the Food Production Based on Quantile Regression——Take the Case of Hubei Province

作者：毛伟[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学经济管理学院,广东湛江524088

年份：2012

卷号：28

期号：2

起止页码：81

中文期刊名：湖南财政经济学院学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

语种：中文

中文关键词：粮食产量;分位数回归;HP滤波;湖北

外文关键词：food production; quantile regression; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Hubei province

中文摘要：影响粮食产量的主要因素有播种面积、成灾面积、农用机械总动力、化肥投入折纯量、农村用电量、有效灌溉面积等方面。利用HP滤波处理1979年至2009年湖北省粮食产量数据得出其的波动特征,并将各时间序列的长期趋势剔除,使序列仅含波动项以进行分位数分析。结果表明:在粮食产量的低分位点上,各因素对粮食增产的作用明显;在其它分位点处,作用不明显。需要确保粮食播种面积,科学投放化肥,保障农业生产用电,鼓励粮食生产规模化,完善粮食生产的风险管理工具和制度,以保证粮食产量,保障粮食安全。

外文摘要：The main factors affecting food production include sown area,disaster area,total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer inputs,rural electricity consumption and the effective irrigated area.According to the yearly time series data from 1979 to 2008,this paper analyzes the fluctuation character of food production in Hubei province using Hodrick-Prescott filter,and removes long-term trends of each time series by use of HP filter method,so there are only volatility factors in each series,then analyzing these volatility factors by quantile regression model.The results show that at the low tail of the food production distribution,each factor has obvious effect to the food production,while at the high tail of the food production distribution,effect is not obvious.In order to ensure food production and ensure food security,we should ensure the grain sowing area,use fertilizers scientifically,guarantee agricultural production of electricity,encourage grain large large-scale production and improve the risk management tools and systems of food production.