文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：The Month-to-Year Precursory and Synchronous Inherent Connections between Global Oceanic Modes and Extreme Precipitation over China

作者：Liu, Xiaoyu[1,2,3];Zhang, Yu[1,5];He, Bian[2,3,4];Liu, Yimin[2,3,4];Wu, Guoxiong[2,3,4];Xu, Jianjun[1,5];Bao, Qing[3];Hu, Wenting[2,3];Mao, Jiangyu[3]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Lab Coastal Ocean Variat & Disaster Predict, Zhanjiang 524088, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Lab Earth Syst Numer Modeling & Applicat, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;[3]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;[4]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;[5]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Shenzhen Inst, Shenzhen 518120, Peoples R China

年份：2025

外文期刊名：ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001426304500001)、、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85218245704)、WOS

基金：The research presented in this paper was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42122035, 42288101, 42130605, 72293604, 42475179, and 42475020). We thank for the technical support of the National large Scientific and Technological Infrastructure "Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility" (https://cstr.cn/31134.02.EL). We also acknowledge the support of the Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Tropical Ocean Environment in Western Coastal Waters (GSTOEW), Key Laboratory of Space Ocean Remote Sensing and Application, CMAGDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine Meteorology, Key Laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Ocean (LCRE).

语种：英文

外文关键词：extreme precipitation; Asian summer monsoon; consecutive wet days; oceanic modes; generalized linear model; ENSO

外文摘要：The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation (SEPP) in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices: consecutive wet days, total precipitation amount, and daily precipitation intensity. The relationships between precursory and concurrent global oceanic modes and SEPP were identified via a generalized linear model (GLM). The influence of oceanic modes on SEPP was finally investigated via numerical simulations. The results revealed that the climatological SEPP (>= 14 days) mainly appears across the Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and South China coast. The first EOF mode for all three indices showed strong signals over the Yangtze River. Further analysis via the GLM suggested that the positive phases of the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) in autumn, ENSO in winter, the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) in spring, and the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer emerged as the most effective precursory factors of SEPP, which could serve as preceding signals for future predictions, contributing 30.2%, 36.4%, 38.0%, and 55.6%, respectively, to the GLM. Sensitivity experiments revealed that SST forcing in all four seasons contributes to SEPP over China, whereas the winter and summer SST warming over the Pacific and Indian Ocean (IO) contributes the most. Diagnosis of the hydrological cycle suggested that water vapor advection predominantly originates from the western Pacific and IO in summer, driven by the strengthened subtropical high and Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The enhanced vertical water vapor transport is attributed to stronger upward motion across all four seasons. These findings are helpful for better understanding SEPP variabilities and their prediction under SST warming.