文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Analysis and Prediction of Significant Wave Height in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea

作者：Wang, Huan[1];Fu, Dongyang[1,2];Liu, Dazhao[1,2];Xiao, Xiuchun[1,2];He, Xianqiang[3];Liu, Bei[1]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Sch Elect & Informat Engn, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[2]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Guangdong Prov Engn & Technol Res Ctr Marine Remo, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, Peoples R China;[3]Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 2, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

年份：2021

卷号：126

期号：3

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000636285300029)、、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85103591579)、WOS

基金：The authors would like to thank all the reviewers for their comments on this article. This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41340049, 41430968), the National Marine Important Charity Special Foundation of China (201305019), the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong (2013B030200002, 2016A020222016), the Project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University (GDOU2014050226), the Project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University (No. Q15090), and the Graduate Education Innovation Program of Guangdong Ocean University (201920).

语种：英文

外文摘要：A series of 40-year significant wave height (SWH) data were extracted from the ERA-Interim data set of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), for the Beibu Gulf and its adjacent waters in the South China Sea from 1979 to 2018. After that, data were first aggregated to annual and monthly average data. Through the analysis, the annual SWH had grown since 1984, reached a significant level in 1995, and reached a maximum 1.068 m in 2011. The monthly SWH values between April and September were lower than those of other months. Additionally, the corresponding analysis on wind speed data demonstrated that variation in wind speed was consistent with SWH from 1979 to 2018, but the overall trend of SWH increased while wind speed decreased. The decrease of wind speed could be attributed to the weakening of the East Asian monsoon, and the westward swell induced by the gales that occurred in the northeast of the South China Sea resulted in the increase of SWH in the study area. Finally, a multiple sine function decomposition neural network (MSFDNN) was employed to forecast monthly SWH over the next 10 years. The predicted results revealed that the MSFDNN was well-performing for forecasting monthly SWH.