文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：指数平滑模型在日本珍珠产量预测中的应用

英文题名：Application of exponential smoothing model to forecasting the yield of Japanese pearl

作者：张莉[1];罗鹏[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学海洋经济与管理中心海洋经济研究所,广东湛江524088

年份：2009

卷号：33

期号：10

起止页码：59

中文期刊名：海洋科学

外文期刊名：Marine Sciences

收录：CSTPCD、、CSCD2011_2012、北大核心2008、北大核心、CSCD

基金：广东省自然基金资助项目(9152408801000019)

语种：中文

中文关键词：指数平滑模型;日本珍珠产量;预测

外文关键词：exponential smoothing model; Japanese pearl production; forecast

中文摘要：为了准确地研判日本珍珠产业发展势态，科学地确立中国珍珠产业发展目标，有效地制定中国珍珠产业发展政策，采用EVIEWS5．0软件构建了指数平滑模型，并对日本2008～2015年的珍珠产量进行了预测，预测结果显示日本的珍珠产量持续下降，到2015年日本的珍珠产量达到12．35t。

外文摘要：Japan is the world＇s cultured pearl country for the first large-scale, which plays an important role in the pearl history of the world. In recent years, Japan＇s pearl production decreased year after year. However, the Japanese government is to maintain its leading position in the world, using advanced processing technology, and imports pearls around the world, then exportes after processing in return for high profits. Japan＇ s advanced culture, processing technology, norms industry management, importuning intellectual property protection and consumers rights have an important inspiration for the development of China＇s pearl. In order to accurately judge Japan＇s pearl industry developments and scientifically establish goal of China＇s pearl industry, it is necessary to set up China＇s pearl industry development policies. In this paper, the exponential smoothing mode is built with EVIEWS 5.0, and Japan＇s pearl production in 2008-2015 is forecasted. The prediction results showed that Japan＇s pearl production continued to decline and would reach 12.35 tons in 2015.