文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Comparison of Adaptive Simulation Observation Experiments of the Heavy Rainfall in South China and Sichuan Basin

作者：He, Linbin[1,2,3];Peng, Weiyi[1,2];Zhang, Yu[1];Miao, Shiguang[3];Chen, Siqi[4];Li, Jiajing[1,5];Shao, Duanzhou[1];Zhang, Xutao[2]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang 524088, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;[3]China Meteorol Adm, Inst Urban Meteorol, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China;[4]Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China;[5]Minist Nat Resources Peoples Republ China, Dalian Marine Ctr, Dalian 246000, Peoples R China

年份：2024

卷号：41

期号：11

起止页码：2173

外文期刊名：ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001326684400001)、、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85205358582)、WOS

基金：This study was jointly supported by the Guangdong Province University Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project (580520049), the Guangdong Ocean University Scientific Research Startup Fund (R20021), and the Key Laboratory of Plateau and Basin Rainstorm and Drought Disasters in Sichuan Province Open Research Fund (SZKT201902).

语种：英文

外文关键词：adaptive observation; ensemble transform sensitivity; data assimilation; rainfall

外文摘要：This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity (ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.