文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：面向应急减灾的递进式服务消减马太效应理论模型——以登陆福建台风案例为例

英文题名：A Theoretical Model of Progressive Services to Reduce the Matthew Effect in Emergency Management and Disaster Mitigation:Taking the Cases of Typhoons Landing in Fujian as Examples

作者：邵颖斌[1,2];陈俊哲[3];朱艳萍[1];陈思[2,4,5];江晓南[1];韩美[1];杨琨[6]

机构：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350008;[2]中国气象局海峡灾害天气重点开放实验室,福建福州350008;[3]广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院大气科学系,广东湛江524088;[4]福建省气象科学研究所,福建福州350008;[5]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350008;[6]国家气象中心,北京100081

年份：2025

卷号：40

期号：4

起止页码：77

中文期刊名：灾害学

外文期刊名：Journal of Catastrophology

收录：北大核心2023、、北大核心

基金：中国气象局创新发展专项“基于多源大数据的精细化动态化气象灾害风险预估技术”(CXFZ2024J073);中国气象局决策气象服务专项“精细化台风灾害综合风险预估技术”(2024JCZX009);福建省气象局软科学研究项目“基于知识与数据协同驱动的智能决策气象服务范式转变研究”(2502)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：应急减灾;递进式决策气象服务;有限理性;马太效应;对抗偏见

外文关键词：emergency management and disaster mitigation;progressive meteorological decision-making services;Bounded Rationality;Matthew Effect;confronting prejudice

中文摘要：通过论证和构建气象灾害应急防御中气象服务的理论逻辑和策略模型,该文旨在优化底层框架以提升应急减灾效能。首先基于实际业务经验,发现强台风较弱台风更易触发启动高级别应急响应,且预警提前量更大,呈现马太效应,但随着递进式服务策略实施,该现象随年际呈消减,台风“杜苏芮”和“海葵”案例可对其验证。从现代决策理论视角出发,文章指出应急减灾具有有限理性的客观属性,构建递进式服务理论模型,从信息源、决策者和决策点三个维度有效对抗气象防灾减灾过程中的累积状态偏见,以消减马太效应、减少决策误差。

外文摘要：To aim at exploring the bottom framework of meteorological services in meteorological disaster prevention,a theoretical model and the approaches on improving efficiency of emergency management and disaster mitigation have been proved and built.Based on practical experiences,it is found that the higher levels emergency response and earlier advanced warnings happened more in strong landing-typhoon cases than the weak cases,which manifests the Matthew Effect on the meteorological disaster prevention and reduction is obvious.Besides,on the interannual variations of the highest level of emergency response and the time of advanced warnings,the Matthew Effect for the difference of landing-typhoons’intensity has shown a reduction phenomenon with the transformation of meteorological service concepts and the implementation of progressive service strategies.The meteorological disaster prevention and reduction processes of typhoons Doksuri and Haikui support the reduction role of progressive services.Moreover,with the concept of Bounded Rationality from Modern Decision Theory,it is proved that Bounded Rationality exists objectively in emergency management and disaster mitigation.In conclusion,a theoretical model of meteorological decision-making service has been built,which shows there are 3 dimensions of information sources,decision-makers and decision points playing important roles in progressive service strategies to achieve the reduction of the Matthew Effect.