文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：Contrasting two spring SST predictors for the number of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

英文题名：Contrasting two spring SST predictors for the number of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

作者：Wang Lei[1]

机构：[1]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Coastal Ocean Variat & Dis, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China

年份：2016

卷号：9

期号：6

起止页码：420

中文期刊名：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

外文期刊名：ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS

收录：ESCI(收录号：WOS:000412013800003)、CSCD2015_2016、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85075745207)、WOS、CSCD

基金：This work was funded by the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation [grant number 2015A030313796]; the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41205026, 41476009, 41476010]; the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDA11010104]; the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction [grant number GASI-IPOVAI-04]; the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number SQ201208].

语种：英文

中文关键词：Spring SST predictor;tropical cyclone; westernNorth Pacific; interannualvariability; interdecadal variability

外文关键词：Spring SST predictor; tropical cyclone; western North Pacific; interannual variability; interdecadal variability

中文摘要：Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclones （TCs） in the following peak typhoon season （June-October）： the northern tropical Atlantic （NTA） SST, and the SST gradient （SSTG） between the southwestern Pacific and western Pacic warm pool. The interannua[ and interdecadal variations of NTA SST and SSTG and their relationships to the number ofWNP TCs during 1950-2013 were compared. On the interdecadal timescale, SSTG showed better correlation with the number of WNP TCs than NTA SST. The interdecadal variation of NTA SST was closely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while that of SSTG was anti-correlated with the Central Pacific （CP） El Nino index at the interdecadal timescale. On the interannual timescale, both NTA SST and SSTG were modulated by two types of El Nino. The NTA SST revealed significant correlations with the number of WNPTCs beginning from the early 1960s; by contrast, SSTG showed significant correlations after the mid-1970s. Co-variability of NTA SST and SSTG existed after the late 1980s, induced by modulation from CP El Nino.The co-variability of these two spring SST predictors increased their prediction skill after the late 1980s, with enhanced correlation between the number of WNPTCs and the two predictors.

外文摘要：Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) in the following peak typhoon season (June-October): the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST, and the SST gradient (SSTG) between the southwestern Pacific and western Pacific warm pool. The interannual and interdecadal variations of NTA SST and SSTG and their relationships to the number of WNP TCs during 1950-2013 were compared. On the interdecadal timescale, SSTG showed better correlation with the number of WNP TCs than NTA SST. The interdecadal variation of NTA SST was closely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while that of SSTG was anti-correlated with the Central Pacific (CP) El Nino index at the interdecadal timescale. On the interannual timescale, both NTA SST and SSTG were modulated by two types of El Nino. The NTA SST revealed significant correlations with the number of WNP TCs beginning from the early 1960s; by contrast, SSTG showed significant correlations after the mid-1970s. Co-variability of NTA SST and SSTG existed after the late 1980s, induced by modulation from CP El Nino. The co-variability of these two spring SST predictors increased their prediction skill after the late 1980s, with enhanced correlation between the number of WNP TCs and the two predictors.