文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Winter Cloudy Days Will Diminish Over China Under Global Warming

作者：Tan, Hui[1];Zhu, Zhiwei[1];Miao, Lijuan[2];Long, Jingchao[3]

机构：[1]Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC,, Nanjing, Peoples R China;[2]Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China;[3]Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, South China Sea Inst Marine Meteorol SIMM, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China

年份：2023

卷号：11

期号：12

外文期刊名：EARTHS FUTURE

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:001129302000001)、、WOS

基金：This research received financial supported from the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0801702), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175033) and the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2023LASW-B14). We also acknowledged the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology for their valuable support.

语种：英文

外文关键词：cloudy days; global warming; solar photovoltaic industry; Eurasian Rossby wave train; Barents Sea thermal forcing; Maritime Continent convection

外文摘要：Changes in winter cloudy days (CDs) exert substantial impacts on agricultural production, public transport, and the solar photovoltaic (PV) power industry. However, the physical mechanism behind the variability of winter CDs over China remains largely unclear, making it challenging to predict the future dynamics of winter CDs. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal features of winter CDs over China from 1961 to 2013 and identified two independent formation mechanisms associated with its leading mode. Then, we projected the future changes (2021-2099) in winter CDs under global warming constrained by the identified formation mechanisms. Results revealed that: (a) The leading mode of winter CDs from 1961 to 2013 presents a homogeneous pattern. The positive winter CDs anomaly is connected to the anomalous southerlies related to the Eurasian Rossby wave train triggered by the Barents Sea thermal forcing, as well as the Asia-Pacific zonal geopotential height gradient induced by the convection over the Maritime Continent; (b) Selected state-of-the-art climate models project a notable decrease in winter CDs in the Tibetan Plateau and southern China regions, and almost unchanged winter CDs over northern China, under global warming; (c) In contrast to present-day mechanisms, in the future, the shift of the Eurasian mean flow will terminate the role of the Barents Sea thermal forcing. Instead, the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent emerges as the primary contributor to the decline in winter CDs. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in the solar PV industry, particularly in relation to the challenges faced under global warming. Winter cloudy days (CDs) over China exhibit significant spatiotemporal variability, greatly impacting agriculture, transportation, and the solar photovoltaic (PV) power industry. However, the physical mechanism and future changes of winter CDs in China under global warming have not been extensively explored. We revealed two independent routes influencing the formation of winter CDs in China. Furthermore, state-of-the-art climate models project a clear diminish in winter CDs over the Tibetan Plateau and southern China in the mid-term and long-term under global warming, providing valuable guidance to policymakers involved in the solar PV power industry. The uniform pattern observed in the dominant mode of winter cloudy days (CDs) over China can be attributed to the anomalous southerlies in East AsiaThe warming Arctic forcing and negative convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent both lead to the anomalous southerlies in East AsiaWinter CDs will diminish with enhanced greenhouse forcing, owing to a shift in Eurasian westerly jet affecting the Arctic forcing on East Asian anomalous southerlies