文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：海面温度对南海台风强度的影响

英文题名：Effect of Sea-surface Temperature on the South China Sea Typhoon Intensification

作者：刘贝[1];周倩莹[1];付东洋[1]

机构：[1]广东海洋大学海洋遥感与信息技术实验室,广东湛江524088

年份：2019

卷号：39

期号：1

起止页码：97

中文期刊名：广东海洋大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

收录：CSTPCD

基金：国家海洋公益专项(201305019);广东省自然科学基金(2014A030313603);广东省科技计划项目(2013B030200002;2016A02022206);广东海洋大学创新强校项目(GDOU2014050226);广东海洋大学博士科研启动项目(E11097);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD12YGL04);广东省普通高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目(2012WYM_0077)

语种：中文

中文关键词：台风;台风强化;海表温度;南海

外文关键词：Typhoon;Typhoon intensification;Sea surface temperature;South China Sea

中文摘要：【目的】分析海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)对南海台风强度的影响。【方法】以南海为研究区域,以中国气象局热带气旋资料中心热带气旋最佳路径数据集为基础,利用Savitzky-Golay卷积平滑算法和多项式插值算法将台风数据进行插值,对强化值和SST值在南海区域的网格单元进行平均,建立模型并对其做回归分析,分析台风强度强化程度与SST模型之间的关系,以及检验模型残差的分布。通过数据提供的台风轨迹的增强率,来检验SST对台风强度变化的影响。【结果】建立台风强化值与SST之间的回归模式,平均而言,平均SST每增加1℃,台风强度强化度增加12.5%。该模型具有统计学意义,即台风高强度强化值与高海温值相关。【结论】本研究建立的统计模型对南海台风强度的预报有较好的指示效果。

外文摘要：【Objective】The influence of sea surface temperature(SST)on the intensification of typhoon intensity in the South China Sea was analyzed to improve the prediction accuracy of typhoon intensity.【Methods】Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones obtained from the China Meteorological Administration,the South China Sea was taken as the study area.The Savitzky-Golay convolution smoothing method(SGS)and polynomial interpolation algorithm were used to interpolate typhoon data,the intensification of typhoon and monthly SST data over the same period were averaged in the same cells.The SST effect on intensification,at the climate scale,was quantified by regressing intensification onto SST while controlling for average intensity,and the residual distribution of the model was used to test the model.【Results】The model shows a statistically significant relationship,with higher intensification values associated with higher SST values.On average,the mean intensification increases by 12.5%for every 1℃increase in the mean SST.【Conclusion】In this study,the statistical model has a good indicative significance for the prediction of typhoon intensity in the South China Sea.